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Affiliation of Author(s):民航学院

Title of Paper:Enhanced delay propagation tree model with Bayesian Network for modelling flight delay propagation

Journal:TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AND TECHNOLOGY

Key Words:Flight delays Bayesian Network delay modelling delay propagation delay propagation tree

Abstract:An enhanced Delay Propagation Tree model with Bayesian Network (DPT-BN) is developed to model multi-flight delay propagation and delay interdependencies. Using a set of real airline data, results show that flights have non-homogeneous delay propagation effects. The DPT-BN model is used to infer posterior delay profiles with different delay and scheduling scenarios. The major contribution of the DPT-BN model is to demonstrate how the modelling of non-independent and identically distributed delay profiles is more realistic for the observed delay propagation mechanism, and how robust airline scheduling methodologies can benefit from this probability-based delay model.

ISSN No.:0308-1060

Translation or Not:no

Date of Publication:2018-01-01

Co-author:Wu, Cheng-Lung

Correspondence Author:wzz