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所属单位：民航学院
发表刊物：Int. J. Aerosp. Eng.
摘要：Human error is one of the most important risk factors affecting aviation safety. The original Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) developed for the nuclear industry is reliable for human reliability quantification, but it is not fully applicable to human reliability analysis in aviation because it neglects the characteristics of long-duration flights. Here, we propose a modified CREAM method to predict human error probability in flight and provide some improvement measures for critical operations. A set of performance influencing factors (PIFs), such as flight procedures and ground support, is established to reflect operational scenarios in flight. Then, we develop the expected affect index of PIFs and the Scenario Influence Index to construct a quantitative model of human reliability. The probability of human error for each operation in the approach and landing phases is obtained with the modified CREAM method, and the results indicate that the most important cognitive function that influences human reliability is missed action. The proposed method may be a suitable tool for human reliability quantification in aviation considering long-duration flights. The method also has great practical significance for improving flight safety. © 2019 Yundong Guo et al.
ISSN号：1687-5966
是否译文：否
发表时间：2019-01-01
合写作者：Guo, Yundong,Yang, Xiufang,Wang, Zongpeng
通讯作者：孙有朝