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Affiliation of Author(s):民航学院

Title of Paper:Failure risk assessment method of civil aircraft based on Monte Carlo method

Journal:Hangkong Xuebao

Abstract:In order to improve aviation safety and reduce the risk level of parts failure in the process of civil aircraft operation, the individual and fleet risks have been calculated. The key points of individual risk are how to confirm the failure distribution and rate, which turns out that Wei-bull distribution is applicable. According to the failure mechanism of part, the non-detection probability and the conditional probability the detect will leads to an unsafe outcome as well as related injury rate have been listed, in order to determine the risk level. Based on the individual risk, the key points of fleet risk are fleet scale and current flight circles. The number of failure flights has been predicted based on operational data. The risk value has been acquired under different operated situation such as parameter distribution, number of failure flights as well as retirement cycles. The failure time of individual and fleet has been simulated by Monte Carlo method in the case of serration crack in turbine disc of aero-engine. The risk levels of individual and fleet about this part have been analyzed, and the two kinds risk levels have been given at continued airworthiness stage based on operational data. © 2017, Press of Chinese Journal of Aeronautics. All right reserved.

ISSN No.:1000-6893

Translation or Not:no

Date of Publication:2017-10-25

Co-author:Guo, Yuanyuan,llb

Correspondence Author:sun youchao