点击次数：

所属单位：经济与管理学院

发表刊物：PROCEEDINGS OF 2017 IEEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON GREY SYSTEMS AND INTELLIGENT SERVICES (GSIS)

关键字：cross-border e-commerce forecasting GM(1,1) model DGM(1,1) model

摘要：According to the status quo that China's cross-border e-commerce is expanding rapidly, we selected the total imports and exports of China's cross-border e-commerce from 2008 to 2015 with a view to make some predictions. Firstly, using Grey System Theory, we partly establish GM(1,1) model and DGM(1,1) model to forecast and analyze the next five years' total imports and exports of China's cross-border e-commerce. Secondly, we compare the two types of models with the actual values and calculate the residual difference. Finally, we choose the one whose residual difference is smaller as the better model which could lead to more valid and precise prediction results in order to deepen people's understanding about the current situation and development prospects of China's cross-border e-commerce.

是否译文：否

发表时间：2017-01-01

合写作者：Su, Yige,Wang, Yijing

通讯作者：米传民