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所属单位：经济与管理学院

发表刊物：Xi Tong Cheng Yu Dian Zi Ji Shu/Syst Eng Electron

摘要：To address the drawbacks of traditional GM(1, N), which do not consider the interaction effects among driving factors, a model, abbreviated as IEGM(1, N), is proposed by introducing the interactive terms into the GM(1, N) model after studying the concept of interaction effects and problems of the classic multivariable model. Subsequently, the methods of estimating the parameters are put forward. Then, two derived models are built to extend the application areas of the novel model, and their modeling conditions and application scopes are studied. Finally, an actual example about the output values of high-tech industry in Jiangsu province is studied to demonstrate the efficacy of IEGM(1, N) and its derived model. Empirical results show that the novel model considering interaction effects can achieve a better simulative and predictive precision than the other two models to solve the forecasting problems of a system, which are affected by many factors having interaction effects. © 2018, Editorial Office of Systems Engineering and Electronics. All right reserved.

ISSN号：1001-506X

是否译文：否

发表时间：2018-03-01

合写作者：丁松,F70206679,王俊杰

通讯作者：丁松,党耀国